Lab Test · Module 3.7

Operational and non-financial risk

50 min8 problems34 answers

How it works

Eight problems from the people who run a bank's operational risk: the loss data analyst, the risk partner who challenges the business, cyber, scenarios, modelling, capital, resilience and the reporting team. They follow one new bank, Tarrowby Bank plc, and most need more than one lesson. Answer each part (the unit is shown beside the box; £, %, commas and a minus sign are fine), press Check, then step through the worked solution. Numeric answers are marked right within a small tolerance, so round sensibly as you go; counts, scores and days must be exact. Keep a calculator handy.

Illustrative dataTarrowby Bank plc, a new bank for the Lab Test

The lessons use RiskAtoms Bank's operational risk book. These problems apply the same rules and methods to a new, smaller bank: Tarrowby Bank plc, invented, with a £30bn balance sheet. Its loss records, controls, indicators, scenario, fits, business indicator, services, recovery options and cases are all made up and kept hand-sized; amounts in £ millions unless stated. It buys from some of the same invented suppliers as RiskAtoms Bank (Cirrovane Cloud, Quillmoor Systems, Velmarra Payments, Wrenhallow Telecom). The residual rating rule is the module's teaching rule, not an industry standard.

Problem 1Filing a year of losses

L3.7.01 · L3.7.03

Operational risk analyst, Tarrowby Bank plc

Tarrowby Bank plc (invented) is a UK retail and commercial bank with a £30bn balance sheet, under half the size of RiskAtoms Bank. It records every loss of £10,000 gross or more; its regulatory data set keeps those of £20,000 gross or more, dated by the accounting date, net of recoveries received. These records were entered during 2025 and January 2026 (£ thousands):

£ thousands
RecordOccurredDiscoveredAccountedGrossRecovered
T1 An attacker uses a phished staff mailbox to send false payment instructions; the bank pays out a corporate client's money and recalls part of it.18 Apr 202522 Apr 202530 May 20251,850450
T2 A broker ring falsified incomes on nine buy-to-let mortgages; the loans defaulted and the losses are already in credit impairments.12 Jun 20233 Feb 202531 Mar 20251,240–
T3 An FX forward is booked the wrong way round; the position is closed at a loss when the error is found.3 Mar 20256 Mar 20256 Mar 2025310–
T4 A flood damages a branch; the repairs are booked in January, and the insurer pays part.2 Dec 20242 Dec 202420 Jan 2025520380
T5 An employment tribunal awards a dismissed employee compensation for unfair dismissal.14 Sep 20231 Feb 202410 Sep 202585–
T6 A supplier invoice is paid twice; the second payment is recalled in full three days later.8 Jul 20259 Jul 202511 Jul 2025640640
T7 Card details skimmed at one cash machine; customers refunded.19 Aug 202525 Aug 20251 Sep 202514–
T8 A £2.3m CHAPS payment keyed to the wrong beneficiary is stopped by the second-person check (potential loss £2,300k).2 Oct 20252 Oct 20252 Oct 20250–
T9 Overdraft fees wrongly charged from 2022 to 2024 are found in November 2025; the redress provision is booked in January 2026.4 Jan 202220 Nov 202515 Jan 20262,600–

Over the ten accounting years 2016–2025 the regulatory data set holds 412 events with £118.0m of net losses. The three largest: a redress provision for mortgage arrears charges (2019) £42.0m, a core banking outage (2021) £8.6m and an AML fine (2023) £5.4m.

Lessons: L3.7.01: What operational risk is · L3.7.03: Loss data

  1. (a)Which Basel event types do T1, T3, T4 and T5 go under?

  2. (b)How do T2 and T3 count?

  3. (c)What net loss goes into Tarrowby's 2025 loss data set? Answer in £k.

    £k
  4. (d)What share of the ten years' net losses do the three largest events make up? Answer in %.

    %

Problem 2Who checks the controls, and how hard

L3.7.02 · L3.7.04

Operational risk partner to the payments business

T1 started with a changed payee. Tarrowby's RCSA rates the risk “payments to changed payee details” at likelihood 4 and impact 4 before controls. Its four key controls and their latest test results:

ControlTypeNatureDesignOperating
C1 New or changed payees are held for 24 hours before the first paymentPreventiveAutomatedEffectiveEffective
C2 A call-back to a number already on file before payee bank details are changedPreventiveManualEffectiveIneffective
C3 A next-morning report of payments to payees changed in the last 30 days, reviewed by a second personDetectiveAutomatedEffectiveEffective
C4 A monthly reconciliation of supplier statements to payments madeDetectiveManualPartially effectiveEffective

Use the module's teaching rule: each preventive control effective in both design and operation takes 1 off likelihood, each such detective control takes 1 off impact, never below 1. Scores of 1–4 are Low, 5–9 Medium, 10–16 High and 20–25 Very high. The call-back (C2) runs about 30 times a day; tests sample runs at random.

Lessons: L3.7.02: The operational risk framework · L3.7.04: Controls: design, testing and assurance

  1. (a)The payments operations team rates C2 'effective' in its self-assessment. Who should challenge that rating, and who tells the audit committee whether that challenge itself works?

  2. (b)What is the risk's residual score (likelihood × impact)?

  3. (c)The tester wants to be at least 95% sure that the sample shows one or more exceptions if 6% of call-backs are skipped. How many runs must they sample?

    runs
  4. (d)Last year's test sampled 20 runs and found no exceptions. If 6% of runs had been skipped all along, what was the chance of that clean sample? Answer in %.

    %

Problem 3A phishing indicator and a cyber policy

L3.7.05 · L3.7.08

Cyber risk analyst

Each month Tarrowby sends staff a test phishing email and reports the share who click. The ten quiet months of January to October 2024 (%):

3.1, 2.8, 3.4, 2.9, 3.6, 3.0, 3.3, 4.1, 3.2, 3.5

Amber is set at the 90th percentile of those months, by linear interpolation (position h = 1 + (n − 1)p in the sorted list); red at 5.0%. A month is amber or red when its value reaches the threshold. The months that followed:

MonthNov 2024Dec 2024Jan 2025Feb 2025Mar 2025Apr 2025
Click rate, %3.53.84.35.25.64.9

On 18 Apr 2025 came the email compromise fraud (T1 in Problem 1). Tarrowby's cyber model gives ransomware 0.2 incidents a year that get past its defences, each with three outcomes:

Ransomware outcomeLoss £mProbability
Contained to a few machines, restored from backup0.860%
Core banking down for days12.030%
Backups encrypted too: weeks to rebuild60.010%

Its cyber policy has a retention of £2m and a limit of £25m per event.

Lessons: L3.7.05: Key risk indicators in practice · L3.7.08: Cyber risk

  1. (a)What is the amber threshold? Answer in %.

    %
  2. (b)With amber at that level and red at 5.0%, how many days before the fraud did the KRI's first red month end?

    days
  3. (c)What does the insurer expect to pay on ransomware in a year? Answer in £m.

    £m
  4. (d)In the worst outcome, how much of the £60m loss does Tarrowby keep? Answer in £m.

    £m

Problem 4A cloud scenario, from workshop to numbers

L3.7.06 · L3.7.07

Scenario analysis lead

A workshop of Tarrowby's technology, payments and finance heads agrees a scenario: Cirrovane Cloud loses the region Tarrowby runs in for two days. Once in 20 years; typical loss £4m; severe loss £30m, the 1-in-100 outcome if it happens.

Read it as the module does: frequency Poisson with λ = 1/N; severity lognormal with median = the typical loss and 99th percentile = the severe loss (z0.99 = 2.3263).

Lessons: L3.7.06: Scenario analysis · L3.7.07: Measuring frequency and severity

  1. (a)What is the lognormal's σ?

  2. (b)What is the mean loss if the outage happens? Answer in £m.

    £m
  3. (c)What is the expected annual loss from this scenario? Answer in £ thousands.

    £k
  4. (d)Tarrowby's plan runs 5 years. What is the chance of at least one such outage in that time? Answer in %.

    %

Problem 5Counting and sizing the fraud losses

L3.7.07

Operational risk modeller

Tarrowby fits its fraud losses of £20,000 or more. External fraud: Poisson with λ = 16 a year, lognormal severity in pounds with μ = 10.8, σ = 1.3. Internal fraud: λ = 1.2 a year, μ = 12.2, σ = 1.5. The two are independent.

Lessons: L3.7.07: Measuring frequency and severity

  1. (a)What is the chance of two or more internal frauds next year? Answer in %.

    %
  2. (b)What is the expected annual fraud loss, both types together? Answer in £m.

    £m
  3. (c)Simulating 20,000 years with these fits gives an expected annual loss of £2.55m and a 99.9% one-year loss of £24.2m, about 9 times larger. Why so many times?

Problem 6Capital under the standardised approach

L3.7.07 · L3.7.03

Capital analyst

Tarrowby's business indicator items, three-year averages in £m (net items already taken in absolute value year by year):

Item£m
|Interest income − interest expense|725
Interest-earning assets28,000
Dividend income4
Other operating income25
Other operating expense45
Fee and commission income300
Fee and commission expense90
|Net P&L, trading book|30
|Net P&L, banking book|12

Use the UK bucket thresholds (£880m and £26,000m, at 12%, 15% and 18%) and the loss data set from Problem 1: £118.0m of net losses over ten years.

Lessons: L3.7.07: Measuring frequency and severity · L3.7.03: Loss data

  1. (a)What is the business indicator (BI)? Answer in £m.

    £m
  2. (b)What is the business indicator component (BIC)? Answer in £m.

    £m
  3. (c)What is the loss component (LC)? Answer in £m.

    £m
  4. (d)What is the internal loss multiplier (ILM) under the Basel formula?

  5. (e)What is the operational risk capital under the Basel standard? Answer in £m.

    £m
  6. (f)The PRA sets the ILM to 1 from 1 January 2027. What does that mean for Tarrowby?

Problem 7The payments service, its suppliers and its recovery

L3.7.09 · L3.7.10 · L3.7.15 · L3.7.16

Operational resilience manager

Personal payments need four parts, all working. Outages a year and mean hours to restore (illustrative; failures independent, 8,760 hours a year):

PartRun byOutages a yearMean hours
Payments platformTarrowby3.02
Core bankingQuillmoor Systems1.05
Cloud regionCirrovane Cloud0.410
Scheme gatewayVelmarra Payments2.01

Tarrowby's important business services, their impact tolerances, and what each needs. Mobile and online banking fails over to a second Cirrovane region in 2 hours; nothing else can switch region yet.

ServiceToleranceNeeds
Personal payments24 hPayments platform (on Cirrovane), core banking, scheme gateway
Business high-value payments (CHAPS)6 hPayments platform (on Cirrovane), scheme gateway
Mobile and online banking12 hApp on Cirrovane, which fails over to a second region in 2 hours; core banking
Mortgage servicing72 hServicing system on Cirrovane; telephony

Yearly spend on its main suppliers:

SupplierWhat£m a year
Cirrovane CloudCloud hosting (one region, a second for the app)9.0
Quillmoor SystemsCore banking software and support6.5
Wrenhallow TelecomTelephony and branch network2.5
Velmarra PaymentsPayment scheme gateway2.0

Recovery options for the payments platform, which carries both payment services (hours; £m a year):

OptionRTO failureRTO corruptionRPO failureRPO corruptionCost
R1 Nightly backup, rebuild on spare hardware363624.0240.3
R2 Warm standby, snapshots every 4 hours8104.041.4
R3 Hot standby, continuous replication1360.1243.6
R4 Hot standby plus immutable copies every 2 hours150.124.2

Lessons: L3.7.09: Technology and change risk · L3.7.10: Third-party and outsourcing risk · L3.7.15: Operational resilience · L3.7.16: Business continuity and crisis management

  1. (a)What is the expected availability of personal payments over a year? Answer in %.

    %
  2. (b)What share of Tarrowby's supplier spend goes to Cirrovane Cloud? Answer in %.

    %
  3. (c)Cirrovane loses Tarrowby's region for 30 hours. How many impact tolerances are breached?

    services
  4. (d)Which recovery option should Tarrowby choose for the payments platform, if both payment services must stay within tolerance after a failure and after corrupted data (ransomware)?

Problem 8Fraud alerts, redress, a lawsuit and a model

L3.7.11 · L3.7.12 · L3.7.13 · L3.7.14

Head of non-financial risk reporting

  • Fraud screen. One card-not-present payment in 5,000 is fraud. The screen flags 85% of frauds and 0.5% of genuine payments.
  • Redress. Tarrowby sold a travel insurance add-on with 240,000 current accounts, and has agreed to review the sales. It expects 25% of customers to complain, 55% of complaints to be upheld at £520 of redress on average, and each complaint, upheld or not, to cost £60 to handle.
  • A lawsuit. A former corporate client sues. Counsel's view: lose at trial (£9m) with probability 35%, settle (£4m) with probability 40% and win (nothing) with probability 25%. The amounts can be estimated reliably.
  • A model error. An arrears-fee spreadsheet overcharged 6,500 customers by £180 on average. Refunds add 8% a year simple interest, for 2.5 years on average.

Lessons: L3.7.11: Fraud and financial crime · L3.7.12: Conduct risk and customer outcomes · L3.7.13: Legal, compliance and regulatory risk · L3.7.14: Model risk: an introduction

  1. (a)What share of the screen's alerts are fraud? Answer in %.

    %
  2. (b)What provision should Tarrowby book for the redress programme? Answer in £m.

    £m
  3. (c)What is the expected value of the lawsuit's outcome? Answer in £m.

    £m
  4. (d)What provision does Tarrowby book for the lawsuit under IAS 37? Answer in £m.

    £m
  5. (e)What does the model error cost in refunds and interest? Answer in £m.

    £m
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