Know these first
Math Atoms
By the end you will be able to
- 1Explain how premiums, reserves and investments fit together in an insurer.
- 2Tell life insurance apart from non-life insurance, and say why their investments differ.
- 3Calculate the loss, expense and combined ratios, and an insurer's operating result.
- 4Explain how pooling makes many uncertain risks predictable.
Why it matters
Most businesses know what their product costs before they sell it. An insurer does not. It takes your money today and finds out the cost months or decades later, when the claims come in.
Core explanation
Paid first, tested later
An insurer sells promises. You pay a premium; in return it promises to pay if something goes wrong: a car crash, a house fire, a death, or simply living longer than your savings. The whole business rests on three linked pieces: premiums come in first, reserves record what is owed, and investments hold the money until it is paid out.
Why it works: pooling. No one can say whether you will crash your car this year. But across a million drivers, the number of crashes is steady from year to year. This is pooling, and it rests on the law of large numbers. Here is life cover as an example. Suppose 2 in every 1,000 people of a certain age die in a year, and each policy pays $200,000. The expected cost per policy is 0.002 × $200,000 = $400. With a 25% loading for costs and profit, the premium is $500.
| Policies in the pool | Expected deaths | Typical swing (±) | Swing as % of expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 223.4% |
| 10,000 | 20.0 | 4.5 | 22.3% |
| 1,000,000 | 2,000.0 | 44.7 | 2.2% |
The swing is one standard deviation of the number of deaths. A small pool is a gamble; a large one is close to a sure thing. That is why size matters so much in insurance.
ExploreHow the money moves through an insurer
Click a box to see what happens there.
Premiums
Policyholders pay at the start of the cover. A one-year home policy bought in July is only half-used by December, so the insurer has “earned” only half of that premium. The unearned part is held as a reserve.
Life and non-life. Insurers split into two families, and in many countries the law keeps them in separate companies.
Life (and pensions)
Pays on death, or pays an income for as long as you live. Contracts run for decades, and many include savings. Main risks: mortality (people die sooner than expected), longevity (they live longer) and interest rates, because the promises are long and the bonds backing them must match.
Non-life (property and casualty, or general)
Covers things and liabilities: cars, homes, ships, businesses, lawsuits. Contracts mostly run for a year. Main risks: underwriting (pricing too low), catastrophes (many claims at once) and reserving (claims costing more than estimated, especially when inflation rises).
Sort itLife or non-life?
A 20-year term policy that pays out on death
A lifetime annuity bought with a pension pot
Comprehensive cover on a car
Directors' liability cover for a listed company
Cover for cargo on a container ship
The formal version
Non-life results are summed up by a few ratios, all measured against earned premiums: the part of the premium for cover already given. They extend the “income minus costs” arithmetic of L1.2.01, so here they are on a few lines.
Conventions
Try it
A non-life insurer writes £1,000m of premiums. At the starting settings the combined ratio is 98%, so the insurance itself makes £20.0m. Claims are paid 2 years later on average, so it holds a float of £1,360m and earns £54.4m on it at 4%. It would still break even with a combined ratio of 105.4%. Push the loss ratio up, then switch to long-tail liability business.
Try itAn insurer's year on £1,000m of premiums
Or pick a line of business
Break-even combined ratio: 105.4%
Worked example
Southern Cross Insurance's year
Southern Cross is a made-up Australian non-life insurer. Amounts are in A$ millions for one financial year. Its investment portfolio, which backs its reserves and capital, averages A$1,500.0m and earns 3.5%.
From premiums to operating result
Step 1 of 6- 1
Loss ratio
Claims incurred A$560.0m ÷ earned premiums A$800.0m = 70%
Regulatory lens
Insurance regulation has one main aim: that the promises are kept, even in a bad year. So rules look at both reserves (are they enough for the expected cost?) and capital (is there a buffer for the unexpected?).
- European Union: Solvency II, in force since 2016. Reserves are a best estimate plus a risk margin. Capital must cover losses that would only be exceeded once in 200 years (a 99.5% level over one year). The UK now runs its own version, Solvency UK.
- United States: insurers are regulated by the states, coordinated through the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC), which sets risk-based capital (RBC) formulas.
- Asia-Pacific: regulators have moved to risk-based capital too, for example China's C-ROSS regime, while Australia's APRA supervises insurers alongside banks.
- Global: the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS, L1.2.09) sets core principles and an Insurance Capital Standard for large international groups.
- Accounting: IFRS 17, in force since 2023, sets how insurers outside the US report contracts and profits.
An insurer's balance sheet and income statement are read in L1.8.04 and L1.8.05. Solvency II and IFRS 17 return in later levels.
Sparks
SparkInsurance born in a coffee house
SparkMoney we hold but don't own
Key takeaways
- Insurers collect premiums first, hold reserves for what they owe, and invest the money until claims are paid.
- Pooling many similar risks makes the total predictable: the swing shrinks as the pool grows.
- Combined ratio = loss ratio + expense ratio. Below 100% means an underwriting profit.
- Investment income on the float can turn an underwriting loss into an overall profit, especially for long-tail business.
- Life insurers hold long promises and long bonds; non-life insurers hold shorter, more liquid assets.
Reaction
Check what stuck
Question 1 · objective 3
An insurer earns £500m of premiums, has £340m of claims and £150m of expenses. What is its combined ratio, in %?
Question 2 · objective 3
An insurer with £1,000m of premiums runs a combined ratio of 103% and earns £50m of investment income. What is its operating result, in £ millions?
Question 3 · objective 1
Why can an insurer make a profit overall with a combined ratio above 100%?
Question 4 · objective 1
A storm hit last week, but many policyholders have not yet filed their claims. Which reserve covers them?
Question 5 · objective 2
Which product usually leaves an insurer holding money for the longest time?
Glossary
- Premium
- The price a policyholder pays for cover, usually in advance.
- Pooling
- Combining many similar risks so that the total becomes predictable, even though each one on its own is not.
- Reserves
- Money an insurer sets aside on its balance sheet for claims and benefits it still owes. Also called technical provisions.
- IBNR
- Incurred but not reported: claims for events that have already happened but have not yet been reported to the insurer.
- Float
- Premiums collected but not yet paid out as claims. The insurer invests it in the meantime.
- Loss ratio
- Claims incurred divided by earned premiums.
- Expense ratio
- Running costs, including commissions, divided by premiums.
- Combined ratio
- Loss ratio plus expense ratio. Below 100% means the insurance itself made a profit.
- Tail
- How long it takes, on average, for claims to be reported and paid. Motor is short-tail; liability is long-tail.
- Annuity
- A product that pays an income, often for life, in exchange for a lump sum.
- Reinsurance
- Insurance for insurers: an insurer passes part of its risk to a reinsurer for a premium.
- Asset-liability management
- Asset-liability management: choosing investments whose cash flows and risks match the promises the insurer owes.
Deep Dives & Origins
Deep Dives
- Saunders and Cornett, Financial Institutions Management: A Risk Management Approach (McGraw-Hill), the chapter on insurance companies. Beginner.
- Swiss Re Institute, sigma reports on world insurance markets (published regularly). Beginner.
- Hull, Risk Management and Financial Institutions (Wiley), the chapter on insurance companies and pension plans. Intermediate.
Origins
- Directive 2009/138/EC (Solvency II).
- IASB, IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts, issued 2017, effective 1 January 2023.
- IAIS, Insurance Core Principles and Common Framework for the Supervision of IAIGs.
- NAIC, Risk-Based Capital overview.
- Berkshire Hathaway, letters to shareholders (on insurance float).
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